Bill's Blog
Emphasizing fixed limit
By Bill Haywood
billhaywood {at} holdemtight,com
Poker dictionary
(31 Jan. 2010) Two folds by Bryce. Was watching a Bryce Paradis training vid and he mucked a couple hands that I would not have known to get away from. In one, he called a raise in BB with 6 A . (SB was also in hand.)
Flop: 6 78. (pot: 6 bets)
SB bet, and Bryce folded. Operating on the (safe) assumption that he's right and I'm wrong, he would have done that because his 6 is probably behind, and has to dodge a lot of cards if it isn't. I guess the five outs was insufficient with two big draws on the board.
Next hand: UG raised pf, MP called, and Bryce called in BB with p33.
Flop: J55 (6 bets)
Bryce checked, UG bet, MP called, Bryce folded.
Me, I'd have figured that flop probably didn't hit them, and would have jammed. But Bryce is the man, so we must figure out the fold. Our p33 is behind a jack, most any pocket pair, can't improve, and even if ahead, has to dodge four cards twice. I imagine Bryce would have stayed against a single opponent.
(15 Jan. 2010) Combining stats. Some statistics take on more meaning when informed by other stats. If you find someone who has a high went-to-showdown rate and plays loads of hands, take special note. On a training vid there was a spectacularly bad player who not only voluntarily entered 74% of pots, but then went to showdown with 56% of them. That is a high WTSD, but combining it with the stratospheric VPIP, a whole new level of fishdom was achieved. This person was showing down 56% of absolute crap. This means that at showdown they turn over considerably worse hands than the usual 56% WTSD. Commentator Ijay at Stox Poker guessed he clung to any queen high. Ways to adapt: never bluff, and make thin value bets on the river, maybe even king high.
(7 Jan. 2010) River decision: call or raise-fold? The first hand for this blog is inspired by an internet discussion. The game is 4/8 limit, live, and the hero has to decide whether to call down on the river, or get tricky and raise, then fold if there's a reraise.
Hero: KK in middle position. A largely unknown but "aggressive" player raises, we 3bet, he calls, everyone else has folded. Flop: Q Q5 Villain bets, we call. Turn: (QQ5) Q Villain check-raises! and we call. River: (QQ5Q) 8 He bets. What to do? Sensible responses are to call, or raise-fold. Raise-fold is a bold line that will extract another bet from hands we beat like pJJ, but if he 3bets, we aren't seeing showdown. I advocate a more conservative line: just call. The situation is too dangerous to raise, but too iffy to fold. A lot of times our raise will only elicit action from hands that beat us, like Q, pAA, p55. And a fold can hurt us the times villain has something we beat like A high or p77 (or A5s!), so I really want to show down, especially against a stranger. A raise by us and a reraise by him puts 11 big bets in the pot. So in those somewhat limited times we fold a winner, the raise-fold line loses11 bb, whereas a simple call has the danger of losing just 1 bet. Therefore this is a fold you would make only with a rock-hard read. The fact that this is a live game, not online, makes it especially likely he really does have a Q, but since he is unknown, I still want to show down. After all, what read we have is that he is aggressive. Now, take it from his point of view. He has to worry that WE have a queen. If he has something like pJJ and is trying to decide if it is good, mightn't he take a river line of bet-fold? Tough players will. All signs point to our calling the river. Having said all that, do expect him to show a Q frequently, especially after the turn check-raise. But there's only one Q left in the deck, and far more A5s, pJJ, pTT type hands in his range. Alternative lines: raise-call river. I dismiss that against all but proven hyper-aggressives. Raise flop: a very valid line. If he has overcards AK, the flop may be the only time he'll call an extra bet. (If he 3bet I'd still showdown.) Downside of a flop raise is that it may fold the hands you beat and pay more when he's ahead. FYI: the original discussion was at BJ21, a pay site. I modified events for illustrative purposes.
Interview transcript. I got the first inquiry in a long time about an old book I wrote, BeatWebCasinos.com. A British site reviewed it and published exerpts of an email interview. I've got the complete interview. (6 Jan. 2010) Inaugural blog entry! Bill Haywood here. The first purpose of this blog is to reinforce things I learn by writing about them, and maybe, hopefully, they'll be of use to others. I primarily play limit hold'em, so that's what most posts will be about. I don't expect to write much color — it'll be poker, not feelings. |
1. Skillful, selective poker play; not chasing long shots. 2. Folding when statistical expectation is negative. Usage: She was both tight and aggressive, playing few hands, but pounding them hard. 
