Bill Haywood's Blog
billhaywood {at} holdemtight,com
Poker dictionary
(9 Aug. 2010) The catch-phrase "gotta see it" is a bad impulse to have rattling around your brain anytime anytime you have a finger resting on a mouse button.
(28 May 2010) Correcting connectors. I used to think that 54 was no better than 74. Yes, 54 makes more straights, but the 7 makes up for it in showdown weight. Based on the belief that if 54s is playable, then so is 84s, I did some simplifications in my starting hands charts. Turns out this was based on misleading simulations. When I first used trusty Poker Stove I compared 54 against a random opposing had, and found that 74 actually performed slightly better against a single random villain. But today I redid the calculations against a villain who played a realistic number of hands — 20%. This time, the 54 was clearly better. And when I did it against two opponents (20% and 30% ranges) the 74 was quite the dog. Yea, I'll have to rein in play with those distant connectors.
(27 May 2010) Rethinking stealing with any two. From a training vid I once got the idea that someone who folds the BB to steals around 40% and up is exploitable by raising most any cards, since at 51% there's an immediate profit, and you also win on occasion at show down. This may be true from the SB, but I was applying the principle a little broadly. And even if someone does have a rate of 52%, that's an average including defense against the SB as well as late position attacks. So if their fold rate is 52% and you steal from the SB, they actually defend more than that. Stealing from the CO and BTN also has to consider that someone besides the BB might not fold. Am revising upward my estimate of what constitutes folding the BB too much, and what hands are necessary to try.
(7 May 2010) The count-chips-then-check trick. Can't believe how well this works. It was once in a blue moon so I was playing live the other day in a 20-40 limit game in Shreveport. You don't know whether to bluff again, so you grab chips and start counting. At least three times a villain immediately grabbed chips preparing to call. Meh, I guess I'll check instead. Saved over $100 by night's end. If this motion took five seconds each time, works out to a very nice hourly rate for chip fondling.
(10 Apr. 2010) Ok, so the name is outdated. When I bought the domain name holdemtight, the state of knowledge in the field was that the way to win was to play tight. Actually, "tight aggresive," which is shortened to "TAG." Being a tag used to be all that was necessary to beat fixed limit hold'em. Now, there are too many capable players for that to be enough. Tight players are too predictable. The received wisdom today is that you must be a lagtag, with the "lag" part referring to "loose aggressive." Someone who is just a lag is bad, but a lagtag is tough and unpredictable. Lagtags bluff and semi-bluff often. It brings in the money by stealing a lot when weak, forcing opponents to call down the times when the lagtag is strong. But don't expect the name of this site to change, I just can't make holdemlagtag.com work.
(24 Mar. 2010) Drawy boards hard to bluff. We'll call this a relesson. It's not a lesson because we already knew it. But it's something that needs reinforcement and more consistent application in the moment. So class, why do we bluff less on drawy boards? Yes, because they may be drawing and less likely to fold. Why else? Yes, they know that we could be bluffing a draw, and will muck less.
(28 Feb. 2010) Spotting a worse two-pair. Here's a situation where we have to reraise or call with two pair. A new player raised his post, I called in SB holding A 5.
Flop: K5 8
I check-raised, driving out the BB, and he 3bet! I called.
Turn: [K58] A
I check-raised, he called.
River: [K58A] 9
I bet, he raised.
I estimate he could have 23 hands that beat me (variants of 88, 55, 99, 89) and 33 that I beat: (85, 89, K8, K9). All the hands we beat are weaker two-pairs. So most of the time, a 3bet will be good, and we'll rarely be punished by a cap. Noticing a likely worse two-pair make happy.
(31 Jan. 2010) Two folds by Bryce. Was watching a Bryce Paradis training vid and he mucked a couple hands that I would not have known to get away from. In one, he called a raise in BB with 6A. (SB was also in hand.)
Flop: 678. (pot: 6 bets)
SB bet, and Bryce folded. Operating on the (safe) assumption that he's right and I'm wrong, he would have done that because his 6 is probably behind, and has to dodge a lot of cards if it isn't. I guess the five outs was insufficient with two big draws on the board.
Next hand: UG raised pf, MP called, and Bryce called in BB with p33.
Flop: J55 (6 bets)
Bryce checked, UG bet, MP called, Bryce folded.
Me, I'd have figured that flop probably didn't hit them, and would have jammed. But Bryce is the man, so we must figure out the fold. Our p33 is behind a jack, most any pocket pair, can't improve, and even if ahead, has to dodge four cards twice. I imagine Bryce would have stayed against a single opponent.
Update: in another context, Bryce emphasized the danger of flops that have three cards to a straight (like 678 above) that can hit opponents in so many ways.
(15 Jan. 2010) Combining stats. Some statistics take on more meaning when informed by other stats. If you find someone who has a high went-to-showdown rate and plays loads of hands, take special note. On a training vid there was a spectacularly bad player who not only voluntarily entered 74% of pots, but then went to showdown with 56% of them. That is a high WTSD, but combining it with the stratospheric VPIP, a whole new level of fishdom was achieved. This person was showing down 56% of absolute crap. This means that at showdown they turn over considerably worse hands than the usual 56% WTSD. Commentator Ijay at Stox Poker guessed he clung to any queen high. Ways to adapt: never bluff, and make thin value bets on the river, maybe even king high.
(7 Jan. 2010) River decision: call or raise-fold? The first hand for this blog is inspired by an internet discussion. The game is 4/8 limit, live, and the hero has to decide whether to call down on the river, or get tricky and raise, then fold if there's a reraise.
Hero: KK in middle position. A largely unknown but "aggressive" player raises, we 3bet, he calls, everyone else has folded. Flop: QQ5 Villain bets, we call. Turn: (QQ5) Q Villain check-raises! and we call. River: (QQ5Q) 8 He bets. What to do? Sensible responses are to call, or raise-fold. Raise-fold is a bold line that will extract another bet from hands we beat like pJJ, but if he 3bets, we aren't seeing showdown. I advocate a more conservative line: just call. The situation is too dangerous to raise, but too iffy to fold. A lot of times our raise will only elicit action from hands that beat us, like Q, pAA, p55. And a fold can hurt us the times villain has something we beat like A high or p77 (or A5s!), so I really want to show down, especially against a stranger. A raise by us and a reraise by him puts 11 big bets in the pot. So in those somewhat limited times we fold a winner, the raise-fold line loses11 bb, whereas a simple call has the danger of losing just 1 bet. Therefore this is a fold you would make only with a rock-hard read. The fact that this is a live game, not online, makes it especially likely he really does have a Q, but since he is unknown, I still want to show down. After all, what read we have is that he is aggressive. Now, take it from his point of view. He has to worry that WE have a queen. If he has something like pJJ and is trying to decide if it is good, mightn't he take a river line of bet-fold? Tough players will. All signs point to our calling the river. Having said all that, do expect him to show a Q frequently, especially after the turn check-raise. But there's only one Q left in the deck, and far more A5s, pJJ, pTT type hands in his range. Alternative lines: raise-call river. I dismiss that against all but proven hyper-aggressives. Raise flop: a very valid line. If he has overcards AK, the flop may be the only time he'll call an extra bet. (If he 3bet I'd still showdown.) Downside of a flop raise is that it may fold the hands you beat and pay more when he's ahead. FYI: the original discussion was at BJ21, a pay site. I modified events for illustrative purposes.
Interview transcript. I got the first inquiry in a long time about an old book I wrote, BeatWebCasinos.com. A British site reviewed it and published exerpts of an email interview. I've got the complete interview. (6 Jan. 2010) Inaugural blog entry! Bill Haywood here. The first purpose of this blog is to reinforce things I learn by writing about them, and maybe, hopefully, they'll be of use to others. I primarily play limit hold'em, so that's what most posts will be about. I don't expect to write much color — it'll be poker, not feelings. |
1. Skillful, selective poker play; not chasing long shots. 2. Folding when statistical expectation is negative. Usage: She was both tight and aggressive, playing few hands, but pounding them hard. 
