Book synopsis continued, by Bill Haywood

Limit Hold'em: Winning Short-Handed Strategies

"Chapter 4, Statistics"

The first section discusses key metrics like VPIP (Voluntarily Put In Pot) which is how many hands someone plays.

Ranges for good players:

• VPIP - 23-29% (some experts, 35%)
• PFR - 17-25% (preflop raise, should be about 2/3 of VPIP)
• AF - 1.5--2.4 (aggression factor, postflop)
• SD - 17bb/hr easily, 50 in heads up (standard deviation)

The authors say most stats need at least *200 hands* to be accurate, but I find simpler ones like VPIP and PFR become somewhat useful well under 50.

Other desirable stats

• Attempt to steal blinds, 30-45%
• Check raising, 1-5%
• Fold small blind to steal, 50-70%
• Fold big blind to steal, 30-55%.
• WSD - Went to showdown, 30-45% (30% is way low, according to other authorities). Above 45% means a major river bluffer
• Won at showdown, 50% is great
• Rake - 1-5 bb/hr
• WSDWRT - Won Showdown When Raising Turn 70%+. This stat was new to me. A high percentage indicates they had the goods when they raised turn, especially if WSD is low.

"Chapter 5, Player Modeling"

Being an advanced player means adapting to opponents. Take notes, because stats alone can be misleading. Many players who are way too loose and aggressive preflop are actually quite shrewd later on. Notes should be straightforward and factual: "raised undercards," not, "dumb."

Different types and how to respond:

Good but bluffy opponents

• Call down more
• Value bet river more
• Check-raises work better
• Tighten blind steals — they aren't leaving
• Good players notice your tricks, so vary

Rocks

• Sit to right to steal more blinds
• Value bet your pairs if it's likely their ace missed
• Steal!
• Take their pf raises seriously

Maniacs

• Sit to left and reraise with moderate hands. Isolate!
• Bluffs are not nearly as effective
• Rope-a-dope: often, just call down their raises. Otherwise, they'll spook half the time because they bet so light
• in v ery short-handed games (2-3) their style becomes more correct

Unknowns

Patterns to exploit

• Flop folders: some auto fold when they miss. Bet!
• Free carders — 3 bet 'em
• Slowplay flop, raise turn with their good hands: check-call turn
• Big bluffers: bluff reraise. They know well the feeling of getting caught
• Won't continue with ace on flop without a good hand or draw: bluff once on the flop. If they stay, it's for a reason.
• Can they read hands? If you call an uncoordinated board, do they put you on a pair and slow up, or keep bluffing?

"Chapter 6, Pre-flop

Basics

• Play tight
• Respect position
• Raise usually, not call
• Fold non-premium hands to raises

Starting hands charts, first-in

• Suggested starting hands are similar to Holdem Tight's
• Tighter chart for less experienced players
• Loose-aggressive chart for skilled players
• When multi-tabling, rein in, use the tight chart.

Facing a limper

• Call, don't raise, with low pairs and lowish suited connectors (although a raise sets up a flop steal)
• Raise strong hands
• Fold weak aces and middling unsuited connectors
• Small blind can call with anything playable on button

Facing multiple limpers

• Play like a full ring game — enter cheaply with non-premium hands
• Call with suited connectors and pocket pairs
• Fold weaker high-card connectors that are easily dominated, like KJo, JTo

Facing a raise

• Raise or fold. Authors state: "Folding to a raise is at most a small mistake." (Blinds excepted)
• Play tighter against early raisers

See charts for more specific info

Stealing

• People expect it short-handed, so be reasonable. Use charts.
• Small blind has worst position at the table.
• Small blind, with weak holdings, call rather than raise against a passive big blind. This allows seeing the flop cheap with 3:1 odds, making a very wide range of hands profitable.
• The two players on left observe you the most, so VARY play.

Blind defense

• SB vs. a raise, play very tight, fold or reraise. Consider the bad position.
• Don't sweat folding SB frequently, pot is small.
• A trick against aggressive stealers: they see your 3bet in the BB as an ace, so don't reraise the ace, but do raise other good hands. This sets up the lesser hands to steal if an ace hits, and the aces can surprise raise.
• BB should raise 50% hands vs. a single SB limper. You have position!
• BB has little need for isolation reraises, so call more.
• Vs. 3 bet pot: play only QQ, AK.
• Vs. capped pot, AA, KK only.
• Vs. frequent stealers, reraise with moderate hands like 87s, 55.

Image

• Vary tight image by 3 betting sometimes with hands like 87s (which are not usually dominated).
• Vary image by pushing preset hands, like 98s, rather than raising deception hands "sometimes," which easily slides into tilt.
• 87s is better to add for deception than Q8s — domination.
• Don't force deception. "Let your cards build your image." (p.89) If you've been card dead, exploit the tight image. If you've been getting great cards, then exploit your loose image.

Vs. aggression

• Against tight aggressives: respect their bets; consider position when reraising.
• Loose aggressives: reraise and call down often. Some are actually quite good after the flop.
• Maniacs: be quick to challenge them with aces, pairs, and suited connectors.
• Pithy saying about low pairs: no set, no bet.

A tricky move, the "three bet preflop bluff raise" (p. 95)

• Do this with a medium hand, in position, against one opponent.
• The reraise represents a big hand, like JJ+ or AK.
• If they miss the flop, they almost certainly fold to your (mandatory) continuation bet.
• This move also gives the illusion of action if your hand gets shown.
• If they fight back after all that, they are certainly strong — fold without a draw.

Quizzes!

• Twenty-two thoughtful practice hands are at the end of this chapter.

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